Adolescent Risk Judgement

Headed by Susan G. Millstein, PhD.

Speculation about adolescents’ lack of competence in recognizing and assessing risk has existed since the time of Aristotle. In both lay and scientific circles, adolescents are frequently portrayed as believing they are invulnerable to harm, a presumption that implies a compromised ability to judge risks. Perceptions of adolescents as incompetent decision makers who are unable to adequately assess potential risks provide the basis for many legal limitations on adolescents’ rights. Yet at the same time, others view adolescents as being capable of making informed, competent decisions, with capabilities equivalent to those of adults. Policies that allow adolescents to take part in research or to undergo certain types of medical treatments without parental permission reflect beliefs in adolescents’ competence to judge risks. Resolving these contradictory views of adolescents’ capabilities thus has important and far-reaching implications.

This study examined developmental differences in risk judgments and perceptions of invulnerability in 577 adolescents (grades 5, 7 and 9) and young adults (ages 10 to 30 years). Participants were surveyed five times over a 2.5 year period. Questionnaires tapped the following areas: risk judgments (across natural and behavior-based risks), experience in taking behavioral risks, experience with negative outcomes, cognitive development, motivational states, numeracy, and decision making in relation to novel risk situations.

Cross-sectional analysis did not support theoretical expectations for greater perceived invulnerability in early adolescents. Adolescents were less likely than young adults to see themselves as invulnerable and only a small minority of adolescents evidenced such perceptions. Moreover, individuals’ perceptions about the magnitude of their personal risk for experiencing negative outcomes showed an inverse relationship to age. Most participants were inaccurate and significantly overestimated risks, this was especially true of adolescents. These patterns of age differences were consistent across different types of risks and sociodemographic configurations. Longitudinal results to date paint a more complex portrait of increasing competence in many areas of decision making.